![]() ![]() In the five months that have passed since the election, GOP state legislators have introduced at least 253 bills restricting various voting rights in 43 states, according to the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU. “Republicans control the legislatures in those states, leaving them with near total say over what those new districts will look like - a sharp contrast to other parts of the country where state governments are either divided or where nonpartisan commissions are tasked with redrawing Congressional and state legislative lines.” Currently, Democrats have just a one seat majority with five vacant seats, so those six new districts could be a majority-maker for Team Red. That “population boom” has been centered in the south, with North Carolina set to gain an additional congressional district, Florida likely to have two additional seats with as many as three in Texas. That’s thanks to a population boom, mostly one-party rule and a new legal landscape that removes federal oversight and delays civil rights challenges.” “The states from North Carolina to Texas are set to be premier battlegrounds for the once-a-decade fight over redrawing political boundaries. As the AP points out, southern states in particular will be a key focus in terms of redistricting in advance of the 118 th Congress in 2023. From intra-party primary fights, that sometimes get very ugly, to running in radically different districts, redistricting in a handful of key states could easily flip control of Congress on its own. For every year like 2008, when more Republicans (five) than Democrats (zero) retired and Republicans lost seats accordingly, there’s a year like 2012, when a whopping seven Democrats retired yet the party picked up two Senate seats.”Įvery ten years, Members of Congress often face an existential threat to their reelection that is mostly out of their hands: redistricting. ![]() ![]() “In election cycles since 1974, the party with the most Senate retirements has actually gained seats just as often as it has lost them. While there is clearly a power in incumbency, FiveThirtyEight suggests that senate vacancies are actually more of a mixed bag. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), Rob Portman (R-Ohio), and Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) already have Democrats scrambling to flip those seats in much easier electoral terrain.Īs I noted in The Hill last month, “Republicans are on the hook to defend 20 of their seats in 2022, while Team Blue has just 14 seats to hold, all in states won by Joe Biden in 2020.” Since March is a perfect month for sports analogies, a good defense provides for a strong offense when the status quo is Democrats retaining control of the upper chamber. Three of Blunt’s GOP colleagues who have announced their early retirements, Sens. Trump carried the Show Me State by over 15 points last November, furthering a rightward voting trend that we have seen in recent years, so the Democrats will have an uphill battle for that open seat next year. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) surprised many by announcing his second term would be his last in the upper chamber. If McConnell does announce his retirement before the midterms, he’ll join five colleagues who have already done so - the most GOP Senate retirements in 12 years. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has a real challenge on his hands when it comes to the sheer number of retirements from his caucus, and there is growing evidence that he is also considering stepping down before his term ends in 2026. Six “R’s” will determine how successful the R’s will be in two years: retirements, redistricting, reforms, raised funds, recruitment, and finally, the Federal Reserve. We are just 600 short days away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it is the perfect time to handicap the Republicans’ chances to win back the House, Senate and prepare a serious challenge to President Biden’s reelection.
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